Our first Deep Dive of the 2020 season has arrived!
This year’s Los Angeles Dodger to get off to a ridiculous start is not nearly as surprising as last year’s. Cody Bellinger took the league by storm in 2019, outperforming projections to a degree rarely ever seen. By contrast, Corey Seager’s start to 2020 should not come as a shock to those who have followed the young shortstop’s career to this point.
Seager made his mark early in MLB with a rookie season for the ages. Both his wOBA and OPS were a full standard deviation above the league average, and among qualified batters, he finished 13th in wOBA, 13th in OPS, and 10th in wRAA. Not bad for a first attempt at Major League pitching.
|wOBA||wRAA||OPS||OPS+||Hard Hit %|
His 2017 numbers were in line with his rookie campaign, which made the baseball universe believe that he was going to be a perennial All-Star and perhaps MVP candidate. Unfortunately, as most know, the world had other plans for Seager in 2018. Surgeries on his hip and his elbow cost him not only the 2018 season, but also much of the offseason leading up to 2019. Due to this, the 2019 season was not up to the same level that we had seen from Seager in 2016 and 2017, but the numbers were by no means bad. He led the National League in doubles. His wOBA and OPS were still above league average despite never feeling right during the season.
Fast forward to 2020. Through 11 games, Seager has a .459 wOBA, a 1.132 OPS, has already added nearly a full win to the Dodgers, and is hitting nearly 2/3 balls hard. This is not to say that the entire season will go like this for Seager, but there so far has been no sign of slowing down. In fact, his .375 batting average is under-performing. He has an expected batting average at this point of over .500. Like I pointed out in Quick Pitch, every ball that Seager hits is leaving the bat with a fury. Even his outs look good right now.
Contact like this shows why his xBA is so much higher than his actual even at this point in the season. The best part for Dodger fans is that the ball is getting sprayed to every field with this kind of power.
From the examples, one can see that Seager is hitting all kinds of pitches in different zones. In his career, Seager has been ruthless not only against the fastball but the slider as well. This sets up to be a two-headed monster that plagues relievers especially in this new era of high velocity fastball/slider repertoires. He even shows that the changeup isn’t safe in the SF game facing Tony Watson.
The short answer to the original question is still at this point no, Corey Seager is not yet the best hitter in the NL; however, based on his underlying numbers from 2016 and 2017 as well as the start to his 2020 season, there is no reason he can’t be. Keep an eye on this guy.